Generating scenarios for extreme events, without extreme data
AI Summary: MIT engineers have developed a machine learning algorithm, called Extreme Event Aware or "η-learning", that generates plausible extreme events and worst-case scenarios, such as storms, heat waves, and wildfires. Unlike existing methods, this approach does not require historical data on extreme events to make predictions, instead learning from a dataset of daily weather records and maps. The algorithm can estimate the likelihood and characteristics of extreme events, such as duration, intensity, and area of impact, and can be applied to various fields beyond weather events, including financial markets and robotic navigation. The method is described in a paper published in Nature Communications.